Rough valuation of share
I'm quite sure I stated this before in some of the posts on share investment: I rely on detailed analysis done by others and I supplement it by doing some research on my own before deciding whether a company should be on my watch list or not. Among the factors I look out for are:
(1) Do I understand the business?
(2) Diversification of revenue
(3) Low debt
(4) Economic moat
(5) Free cashflow yield > dividend yield
(6) Dividend yield of at least 5%
(7) Consistently pays out dividend
(8) Net income is generally growing
However, once shortlisted, I'm usually at a lost of when I should buy its shares. That's because I didn't come up with a valuation model to determine its value...until now.
I want a model that's easy to use and yet makes sense (to me at least). As at now, it looks like this:
Value of share
= [Net asset + Present value of net income for the next 10 years (both on a per share basis)] x [1 - margin]
Net asset is just asset less liability i.e. equity portion.
I use EPS TTM as net income and assume it to be the same for the next 10 years.
The discount rate I use is my required rate of return, which is currently 8%.
"Margin" is the margin of safety, which is 10% currently.
This is of course very rough but it should be on the conservative side:
(1) It has a margin of safety
(2) It ignores growth in net income
(3) Takes into account only 10 years of net income
So I believed if the price of a shortlisted share falls below this calculated value, chances are it is worth buying. I'll definitely take a look at this model again when the time comes for me to buy more shares (ran out of war chest!).
(1) Do I understand the business?
(2) Diversification of revenue
(3) Low debt
(4) Economic moat
(5) Free cashflow yield > dividend yield
(6) Dividend yield of at least 5%
(7) Consistently pays out dividend
(8) Net income is generally growing
However, once shortlisted, I'm usually at a lost of when I should buy its shares. That's because I didn't come up with a valuation model to determine its value...until now.
I want a model that's easy to use and yet makes sense (to me at least). As at now, it looks like this:
Value of share
= [Net asset + Present value of net income for the next 10 years (both on a per share basis)] x [1 - margin]
Net asset is just asset less liability i.e. equity portion.
I use EPS TTM as net income and assume it to be the same for the next 10 years.
The discount rate I use is my required rate of return, which is currently 8%.
"Margin" is the margin of safety, which is 10% currently.
This is of course very rough but it should be on the conservative side:
(1) It has a margin of safety
(2) It ignores growth in net income
(3) Takes into account only 10 years of net income
So I believed if the price of a shortlisted share falls below this calculated value, chances are it is worth buying. I'll definitely take a look at this model again when the time comes for me to buy more shares (ran out of war chest!).
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