Actuarial prediction vs clinical prediction

Wagenaar and Keren (1986) illustrated how overconfidence in personal knowledge and the discounting of statistical information can undermine safety campaigns advocating seat belt use because people think, "I am different, I drive safely." The problem is that over 85 percent of the population thinks that they are "better than the average driver" (Svenson, 1981) - obviously a patent absurdity.

- "How To Think Straight About Psychology", by Keith E. Stanovich
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