Actuarial prediction vs clinical prediction

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Wagenaar and Keren (1986) illustrated how overconfidence in personal knowledge and the discounting of statistical information can undermine safety campaigns advocating seat belt use because people think, "I am different, I drive safely." The problem is that over 85 percent of the population thinks that they are "better than the average driver" (Svenson, 1981) - obviously a patent absurdity.

- "How To Think Straight About Psychology", by Keith E. Stanovich

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